Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.398860 15.307451 17.375016 19.779123 22.495627 25.467910 28.964478
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.687711 13.268437 16.285404 20.064520 24.663239 30.068935 36.896323
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.095843 11.910541 15.365054 19.901538 25.685783 32.796940 42.184006
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.776808 10.679723 14.400112 19.494471 26.262868 34.917626 46.791487
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.925483 9.909527 13.879076 19.513098 27.265997 37.516413 52.046075
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.333282 9.405753 13.632848 19.829260 28.628764 40.615294 58.106878
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.785746 8.894116 13.305780 19.968048 29.706599 43.339453 63.768057
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.230785 8.308274 12.806593 19.793021 30.286675 45.357172 68.506563
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.847658 7.937397 12.578651 19.976621 31.370328 48.122812 74.447295
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.621299 7.783385 12.655047 20.608803 33.144601 51.979020 82.198133
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.228224 7.324868 12.217516 20.398261 33.590251 53.838554 87.000763
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.703643 6.601989 11.299622 19.345538 32.622323 53.442435 88.250229
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.527101 6.456118 11.316911 19.829354 34.177115 57.124406 96.219486
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.354172 6.301105 11.305920 20.262729 35.674456 60.799619 104.395441
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.087378 5.953712 10.936097 20.048981 36.056814 62.657383 109.662813
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.818563 5.577768 10.485167 19.655280 36.093972 63.926787 113.994653
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.637625 5.348569 10.275288 19.668593 36.830656 66.401234 120.487599
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.516000 5.221213 10.238879 19.989000 38.124905 69.891684 128.909262
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.379532 5.052488 10.111517 20.128216 39.091901 72.850615 136.538216
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.214520 4.812015 9.829208 19.952070 39.458934 74.751362 142.360014
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.106458 4.677835 9.740405 20.136994 40.505971 77.919767 150.623566
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.056845 4.660947 9.879695 20.773997 42.447570 82.817351 162.305221
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.918803 4.444034 9.602351 20.561850 42.726573 84.633375 168.318407